Are Top C++ Developers Migrating to Mac?

	Author:	“No Bugs” Hare Follow:
	Job Title:	Sarcastic Architect
	Hobbies:	Thinking Aloud, Arguing with Managers, Annoying HRs, Calling a Spade a Spade, Keeping Tongue in Cheek

Motivation

It is well-known that market share of Macs out there is around 6-7% (see, for example, [Clover]); if we take into account only laptops, it will be more like 10% [Tseng].

On the other hand, Mac laptops are extremely visible, and quite a few times, I was observing that:

in public places such as airports, share of Mac laptops is indeed below 10%
on the other hand, in meeting rooms – share of Macs around me is much closer to 50% (sic!).

Experiment

Of course, I am very-well aware of dangers of such observations being outright misleading (“selective memory” bias etc.), so I was sceptical of my own observation skills. It was only during a CPPCON17 that I realized that there exists a way to perform an objective measurement of this kind of stats:

As Mac laptops are indeed very visible, we can easily review all conference videos on YouTube, and calculate a share of Macs used by speakers

Indeed, the difference between Macs and non-Macs on videos is (most of the time) fairly obvious:


non-Mac	Mac

Of course, it doesn’t indicate which operating system they’re using, but hardware can be identified rather reliably.

Results

Recently, we spent a few hours doing it for last 3 years of CPPCON – and got the following results:

SPEAKERS USING:	Macs	non-Macs	Unknown	Total¹	% of Macs¹
CPPCON2015	24	54	4	78	31%
CPPCON2016	33	62	5	95	35%
CPPCON2017	49	64	11	113²	43%

¹ excluding ‘Unknown’

² at the time of our analysis, there were fewer videos published on YouTube than now, but we don’t expect additional data to skew the stats

Conclusions

I know that any conclusions and speculations in this regard are extremely risky (I will be beaten hard both by Mac fans and Windows fans, not to mention Linux fans just for a good measure); still, IMO from the (semi-scientific) results above we can make the following observations:

share of Macs in use by top C++ developers³ during their presentations on CPPCON, is much higher (like 6x higher) than average market share of Macs
- Once again – it is ONLY about hardware, with no indication of the OS they’re using.
- One may speculate that it might indicate that as soon as C++ developer reaches the point when Mac price is no longer too significant, s/he’s more likely to use Mac over non-Mac box. In other words – it might indicate that C++ developers tend to prefer non-Macs for benefits/price ratio, but tend to switch to Macs when price is no longer that much of a concern.⁴
share of Macs in use by top C++ developers, has indications of growth over time
- In other words, there are some preliminary indications that top C++ developers tend to migrate to Mac hardware over time. This goes in contrast with overall Mac share reportedly shrinking (from ~7% to ~6% over last few years),

I am done for the day. Let the flame begin! <wink />

³ I think we can say that “those who speak on CPPCON” is a rather representative sample of “those we can name ‘top C++ developers'”

⁴ Yes, I know that I will be pummeled particularly hard for saying this

[+]References

Acknowledgement

Cartoons by Sergey Gordeev from Gordeev Animation Graphics, Prague.

Comments

RodrigoCesarBagnara says

December 20, 2017 at 10:32 am

I am not a developer, but because of the pricey Macs, I am a Windows fan. =D

Cory Long says

December 20, 2017 at 12:17 pm

And what set up does No Bugs Hare use?

- "No Bugs" Hare says
  
  December 22, 2017 at 10:35 am
  
  Mac laptop with Dual Boot :-). Linux – only in VMs (which is ok, as Linux is mostly server-side).
  
  EDIT: and several older Thinkpads (one even with Linux host)…
  
Guy Davidson says

January 16, 2018 at 12:16 pm

I use a Mac because I can triple boot it with Linux and Windows in addition to OS X. My projects need to run on all three platforms (a 2D graphics API for standardisation). I may be the case that top developers aim for a broader spread of platforms. It has become easier over the past couple of years to triple boot too as drive capacities have increased.

- "No Bugs" Hare says
  
  January 17, 2018 at 5:44 am
  
  > I may be the case that top developers aim for a broader spread of platforms.
  
  That’s one possible explanation (and IMO rather plausible one at that); note that in OP I was very careful and said that “Of course, it doesn’t indicate which operating system they’re using” :-).
  
  Personally, I just happen to like hardware of Mac laptops better than any of the PC laptops (previously I preferred Thinkpads but since they were acquired by Lenovo they started a journey downhill 🙁 – at least from my experience).
  
Garry says

March 22, 2018 at 5:59 am

«I think we can say that “those who speak on CPPCON” is a rather representative sample of “those we can name ‘top C++ developers’”»

Wrong, you can only see those who are at ease to communicate or are “starified”, which can be the “top influencers” because human is just a bunch of primates giving impressions….

But NO you don’t see often the “top programmers” (those who actually program) doing “show off” to improve their “CV value” and advance in their career with “sociological weapons”…

I’m not saying there AREN’T any good programmer there, I mean there’s a HUGE selection bias which doesn’t use “C++ knowledge/smartness” or whatever “practical” skills, but more “charisma” and communication skills. And IMHO, those are strongly correlated with “showing off” and having a “mac”…

- "No Bugs" Hare says
  
  March 23, 2018 at 4:39 am
  
  It is all about the way how we judge who’s “top”. However, as there is no such thing as an objective metric of being “top”, we have to resort to some indirect metrics such as “recognition by programming community” (it is certainly more objective than any single-guy perception), and in this regard those-who-speak-on-CPPCON, are “recognized as being top”. In absence of the objective metrics of “really being top” – this one is probably the best we can possibly do 🙂 .